October 23rd

If one thing happens, and then another, and then a third thing, did the first thing cause the second thing, and then the second thing cause the third? We would certainly like to think so, but in most cases we would be wrong. How does this hurt us or our business? We can all be unfairly and unreasonably convicted by those who have fallen victim to the causation fallacy1, which is a very common problem. Just because it is against the rules (and not mathematically valid) to average averages, it doesn’t stop it from happening. One of the biggest causation fallacies out there, threatening our personal health and safety, is the erroneous belief that vaccines cause autism. This is motivating mothers to decide against having their children vaccinated, and has led to outbreaks of diseases that once were virtually eradicated in North America. Yes, there is a correlation between the age at which the diagnoses of autism is often made and the timing of vaccinations, but there is absolutely no evidence to support a claim of causation. It just isn’t true. Over-protective mothers irrationally choose to disregard the actual evidence though, and decide that the correlation is evidence and proof—which it most certainly is not.

Online, in the world of Internet Marketing2, marketers are now being accused of a similar thing. Article Marketing3 is supposedly the cause of diminished organic rankings, when there is no evidence to support this claim. In fact, the evidence continues to support the contrary position. Article marketing contributes to result in improved organic rankings. Unfortunately, they are being convicted by correlation: “Did your rankings decline?” “Yes.” “Do you engage in article marketing?” “Yes.” “Well that’s your problem right there; you need to quit doing that.” That actually is not their problem, but the response is generally, “Okay, I will. Is there anything else?” “Yes, while you are at it, stop doing everything that helps you rank organically, because all of that is no longer helping you. You must pay us (search engine companies) advertising money instead.”

Hysteria, not fact, is ruling the industry today. Show me some science and I will get behind that, but stop telling me that because of this thing, that thing happened! Without scientific evidence, you are whistling in the wind.

True warriors understand that correlation does not equate to causation, and when they see a correlation and want to determine causation, they conduct experiments using the scientific method. Unfortunately, for those of you in that marketplace, the irrational fears and hysteria of the masses can trample you, regardless of how wrong they are. You are dead and cannot make your case.

This is the power of the mind and how it works … so be careful. We have said that belief is not related to truth and reality, and that what is in the mind is what governs our behaviour—right or wrong. You are warriors, and you will align with the mind that helps your cause. You will discover the belief that leads you from defeat back to victory. So it is written.

1. Causation fallacy – correlation does not necessarily imply causation, and typically there is not one simple single cause … yet that is what we search for. This fallacy can also lead to magical thinking, where be come to believe in causation in the absence of any scientific support for such a belief or connection.

2. Internet Marketing – is the business of marketing products and services online, generating increased sales by gaining favorable organic rankings from search engine results.

3. Article Marketing – is the business of syndicating articles online that provide links to the websites used or promoted by Internet Marketers and companies that help you improve the organic rankings for your website.